Future PV Technologies Review – 3rd Edition

 

ENF announces its new 3rd Edition Future PV Technologies Review with its amazing breadth and original insights

 

The solar PV industry is now a fast moving and hugely complex industry. Over the space of a decade it has moved from a compact tiny industry supporting a few slow moving technology tracks to one with well over 30 parallel technology tracks, some 300 research laboratories and universities pushing the very boundaries of PV science and over 10,000 companies engaged in all aspects of the solar PV value chain.


Such is the current complexity and pace of change of the solar PV industry that ENF has found it essential to move to this 3rd edition a mere 18 months after publishing the 2nd edition. The report has grown from five main sections to twelve and the number of written characters has doubled to 800,000, packed with well analysed information and data.


The emphasis of the report is on the commercialisation of solar PV technologies. It is the most comprehensive technology review currently on the market. It’s scope travels from the mining of polysilicon, indium and tellurium (with a particular focus on the critical supply issues), down the value chain to the key machinery, factory processes, descriptions of the parallel technology tracks and all the way to the final solar PV products, applications and systems. It provides not just a snap shot of the entire global industry but also drills down several levels below the general business reports and does not shy away from difficult truths.

 

The report is based upon three years of cumulative effort by the ENF research team, brought right up to date and independently vetted over the three editions by eminent PV directors from different parts of the solar PV value-chain.

 

Recommendations

 

"This report is a very impressive collection of information around photovoltaics."

- Frank-Holm Roegner, Head of E-Processing Department, Fraunhofer Institute

 

 

"I would like to congratulate you and your team to the excellent and very comprehensive report. It is really a very valuable document with a lot of insightful information."

- Dr. Arnulf Jäger-Waldau, European Commission Joint Research Centre

 

 

Reasons to buy

 

It is the only technology review of the market to come anywhere near providing the complete interconnected landscape of the entire solar PV industry in any degree of detail. It provides a complete “knowledge centre” as well as analysis of trends, objective commentary on controversial issues and explanations behind some of the facts. The report aims for a level of technical detail that allows managers, engineers and investors to catch a fully informed glimpse of the entire solar PV landscape, including critical metrics.


Wherever you are in the solar PV value chain, before deciding whether to invest (or not to invest), expand (or not to expand) or change direction (or not to change direction) …first read the ENF Future PV Technologies Review

 

Companies covered

 

Over 400 companies are mentioned directly in the main body of the Technology Review building up a rich picture of who is investing in what. Of course there are the well known companies in the industry such as Sharp, Sanyo, BP Solar, Evergreen Solar, First Solar, Würth Solar, Applied Materials, REC, Hemlock Semiconductors, AJA International, as well as companies new to the industry bringing with them challenging innovations.


However the industry is now so large that we have had to limit the number of companies mentioned in the report to no more than a sample of the more significant companies relating to particular technology developments.

 
Instead, where there are a huge number of suppliers for a particular solar PV technology, specialist machine or material we have linked the electronic version of the Technology Review directly to the relevant section of the ENF industry directory of over 10,000 companies. In this way the world’s most comprehensive solar PV technology review is electronically linked to the world’s most comprehensive solar PV industry database. This is a first for the solar PV industry.

 

The report also puts together for the first time over 300 university departments and public and private research laboratories (excluding those of suppliers) that are currently active in solar PV research and for most, identifies their area(s) of research, web links and contact points.
 

Table of contents:

 

 

PV Future Technologies Review 7
Introduction to the 3rd Edition 7
Part I - Economic Effects Shaping Technology Directions 8
Section Index 8
1. The Solar PV Market 8
1.1 Who are the real customers? 8
1.2 Solar powered “battery driven” products 9
1.3 Off grid solar powered applications 9
1.4 Off-grid electricity supply 9
1.5 Renewable generation of electricity for the electricity grids 10
1.6 Renewable micro-generation of electricity for the electricity grids 11
1.7 Building Integrated PV (BIPV) Market 11
2. Forces shaping the success/price of a PV technology 12
2.1 Technological Advantage v Economies of Scale 12
2.2 Strategy Rules for successfully getting new solar PV technologies to market 14
2.3 Funding Dynamics behind new technologies 15
3. The solar PV industry cost drive to grid parity 18
3.1 Cost of What? 18
3.2 Cost per Watt ($/Wp) of solar PV modules 18
3.3 Installed system cost 26
3.4 Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) 28
4. Drive for Higher Efficiency 29
5. Efficiency - from Lab to Field 31
6. Do standard test conditions paint an accurate picture of “Efficiency”? 32
7. Impact of “Game Playing” on a more competitive PV industry 37
7.1 Manufacturers and Governments/Regulators 37
7.2 Manufacturers and Suppliers 38
7.3 Manufacturers and their Competitors 38
7.4 Manufactures and their Customers 39
8. The Risks of the Business - (Chaos Theory) 40
8.1 Risks facing all industries 40
8.2 Risks particular to the solar PV industry 41
8.3 Risks particular to a specific solar PV technology 42
8.4 Risks specific to the particular commercial enterprise 44
8.5 Risk Summary 45
9. What is Characterising the Solar PV Industry today 46
10. Forecasting Technology Progress over the next 5 Years 47
Part II - Review of Critical Materials 49
Section Index 49
1. General Introduction 49
2. Polysilicon 51
2.1 Introduction 51
2.2 Established Silicon Refining Technologies for polysilicon 51
2.3 Emerging Scene of Silicon Refining Technologies for polysilicon 55
2.4 Implications for the solar PV industry 60
2.5 Polysilicon Suppliers 61
3. Indium 62
3.1 General Introduction 62
3.2 Forces that will determine the market price of indium 62
3.3 Market Prices and Trends 68
3.4 Indium Suppliers 70
4. Tellurium 71
4.1 General Introduction 71
4.2 Forces Determining the Price of tellurium 71
4.3 Market Prices and trends 72
4.4 Tellurium Suppliers 73
5. Gallium 74
5.1 General Introduction 74
5.2 Forces determining the price of gallium 74
5.3 Market prices and trends 75
5.4 Gallium Suppliers 75
6. Germanium 76
6.1 General Introduction 76
6.2 Forces determining the price of germanium 76
6.3 Market prices and trends 77
6.4 Germanium Suppliers 78
7. Molybdenum 79
7.1 General introduction 79
7.2 Forces determining the price of molybdenum 79
7.3 Market Prices and trends 80
7.4 Molybdenum Suppliers 80
8. Cadmium 81
8.1 Cadmium Suppliers 81
9. Pastes 82
9.1 Metallization paste 82
9.2 Alternatives to Pastes 83
10. Glass and Alternatives to Glass 84
10.1 Glass 84
10.2 Alternatives to Glass 84
10.3 Glass Suppliers 84
11. Other Materials 85
11.1 Backsheet 85
11.2 Lamination encapsulent 85
Part III - Key machines used in the factory processes 86
Section Index 86
1. Introduction 86
2. Semiconductor deposition technologies 87
2.1 Liquid Phase Epitaxy (LPE) 87
2.2 Chemical Vapour Deposition (CVD) 87
2.3 Molecular Beam Epitaxy 92
2.4 Physical Vapour Deposition (PVD) 93
2.5 Laser Pyrolysis 95
3. Diffusion Furnaces 96
3.1 List of Diffusion Furnace Suppliers 97
4. “Printing” deposition technologies 98
4.1 Introduction 98
4.2 Screen Printing 98
4.3 Inkjet Printing 99
4.4 Spray Coating 101
4.5 Deposition of the PV active material 101
4.6 Focused Flow Extrusion (from PARC) 102
4.7 Light Induced Printing (Electroplating) 102
5. Other Deposition Processes 103
5.1 Chemical Bath Deposition 103
5.2 Ultrasonic Direct Energy Plating 103
5.3 Close Space Sublimation 103
5.4 Vapour Transport Deposition 104
6. Semiconductor Wafer Cutting 105
6.1 Saw Technology 105
6.2 Cleaving technology 106
6.3 Future Developments 106
6.4 List of Suppliers 107
7. Laser Technology 108
Part IV - Factory Processes for PV Technologies 111
Section Index 111
1. Introduction 111
2. Silicon crystalline PV technologies 112
2.1 Monocrystalline Ingot production 112
2.2 Polycrystalline Ingot Production 112
2.3 Cell production 113
2.4 Panel Production 116
3. Thin Film Production Processes 119
3.1 Production process for a-Si (amorphous silicon) solar PV cells 119
3.2 Production process for CIS/CIGS Technology solar PV cells 123
3.3 Production process for CdTe Technology solar PV cells 125
Part V - Factual Survey of PV Technologies 128
Section Index 128
Section Pre-amble:- Explanation of the organisation of this section 128
1. Monocrystalline Solar PV Technology 130
1.1 “Benchmark” Sawn Wafer Technology 130
1.2 Thinner Silicon Wafer Technology 133
1.3 Edge Defined Film-fed Growth Process (EFG) 135
1.4 String Ribbon 137
1.5 Monocrystalline - Back-Contact SunPower Technology 140
1.6 Sanyo HIT Technology 141
1.7 Suntech Pluto Technology (variant of the PERL technology) 143
1.8 n-Type Monocrystalline Silicon PV Cells 144
1.9 Monocrystalline - Silicon Sliver Cells 145
1.9 Spherical Solar Cell 147
2. Multicrystalline - Benchmark Silicon Sawn Wafer Technology 150
2.1 Benchmark Silicon Sawn Wafer Technology 150
2.2 Back-Contact EWT Technology 152
2.3 Angle Buried Contact (ABC) Cell 154
2.4 Selective Emitter Cell 155
2.5 Light Capturing Ribbon 157
3. Thin Film 160
3.1 a-Si Family (including single, tandem and triple junctions) 160
3.2 CIS Family of solar PV technology 169
3.3 Thin film - CdTe Family of solar PV Technology 180
3.4 CTZSS (Copper (Cu), Tin (Sn), Zinc (Zn), Sulfur (S), and/or Selenium (Se)) 184
3.5 Crystalline Silicon on Glass (CSG) 185
3.6 FeS2 (Iron Pyrite) Solar PV Cell 188
4. Very High Performance PV Cells 190
4.1 Single and Double junction (GaAs) 190
4.2 Multi-junction (GaAs) 191
4.3 Indium, Gallium, Nitrogen (Full Spectrum) 196
4.4 Gallium Nitride/silicon tandem solar cell. 197
5. Third Generation 199
5.1 Dye Sensitised 199
5.2 Third Generation - Organic Polymer 206
5.3 Nano-technology (Quantum dots) 212
5.4 Multi-junction Nanowire PV Cells 220
5.5 List of Suppliers of Third Generation PV Technologies 221
6. Concentrator PV Technology 222
6.1 Low Concentration PV (LCPV) (Under 5 suns) 223
6.2 High Concentration PV (HCPV) (Over 5 suns and typically 500 suns) 228
6.3 Combined CPV Electricity and Direct Heating Systems 239
6.4 - List of CPV suppliers 243
Part VI Thermo PV Technology (TPV) 244
Section Index 244
1. Introduction 244
2. PV Cell Technology 245
3. Filters 245
4. System Efficiency 245
5. Cell Efficiency 245
6. Industrial Capacity 246
7. Future Research Directions 247
Part VII Innovative Solar PV Films, Cells, Panels & Designs 248
Section Index 248
1. Transparent Solar Cells 248
2. Coloured Solar PV Modules 251
3. Innovative Panel Designs (Roof Tiles and Shingles) 253
4. Combined PV Flat Panel and Thermal Water Heating 256
5. Building Integrated PV 259
6. Other Innovations 260
6.1 Light Wavelength Conversion Films and Luminescent solar concentrators 260
6.2 Light Splitting PV Receiver 261
6.3 Integrated solar power electronic circuits 262
6.4 Microscopic solar cells for attachment to fabrics 262
6.5 Solar Roads 262
7. Silexium SiC Anti-reflective coating solution 263
Part VIII - Solar PV Generated AC Energy 264
Section Index 264
Sections Pre-amble Introduction 264
1. Inverters 265
1.1 The architecture of inverters to solar PV modules 265
1.2 The Basic efficiency of Inverters 266
1.3 List of Suppliers 267
2. Charge Controllers 268
3. Mounts and Trackers 269
3.1 Fixed Mounts 269
3.2 Single-Axis Trackers and Mounts 269
3.3 Two-axis Mounts 270
3.4 Tracker Drives 270
3.5 List of Suppliers 271
4. Batteries 272
4.1 The Lead Acid Battery Evolution 272
4.2 Other types of batteries currently in use 272
4.3 Future Developments in Battery Technology 272
4.4 List of Suppliers 275
5. Other Innovations 276
5.1 Solar Panel Automated Cleaning 276
5.2 Solar PV Farm Fault Monitoring 276
Part IX - The Solar Powered Products Revolution 277
Section Index 277
1. Solar Applications Product Market 277
2. Markets 278
3. Technology 279
3.1 Solar Cells Only 279
3.2 Solar Cells Plus Motor 279
3.3 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Motor 280
3.4 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Lights 281
3.5 Solar Cells Plus Portable Electronic Device 283
3.6 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Portable Electronic Device 283
3.7 Solar Cells Plus Battery Plus Static Electronic Device 283
4. List of Suppliers 284
5. Discussion and Conclusion 285
Part X - Quality and Reliability of Solar PV Systems 286
Section Index 286
1. The Solar PV Quality System 286
2. Material Quality Control 287
3. Factory Testing 288
4. Quality Standards and Certification by third party testers 289
5. Feedback from the field 290
6. Research programmes to address particular issues 292
Part XI - Survey of Solar PV Research in University & Public/Private Research Laboratories 293
Section Index 293
1. Introduction 293
2. ENF survey of solar PV research 295
America - North 295
America South 312
Asia 313
Australasia 327
Europe 329
Middle-east and Africa 357
Annex - ENF Classification of Research into Solar PV Technologies 360
Part XII - Glossary of Terms used in the Solar PV Industry 361

 

 

 
Methodology
 

The ENF Future PV Technology Review has been a layered process of research and analysis over 3 years. It began in early 2007 with the:

1st Edition of the ENF Future PV Technology Review (Sept 2007)

This first edition brought an “out of industry” perspective led by a leading technology strategist to the emerging global solar PV industry. This offered the industry a fresh way of viewing a number of emerging issues. The solar PV industry was beset by its first crisis – the polysilicon shortage. A deep-dive ENF research project was undertaken on the polysilicon industry that looked at a number of emerging polysilicon refining technologies. It also laid the foundation of the analysis of the number of alternative parallel tracks that the solar PV technologies were branching out into and the review followed the industry convention to first, second and third generation technologies.

 

This foundation layer comprised the following sections:

 

Part I - Setting the Scene (the commercialisation issues)      
Part II - Emerging Scene of Silicon Refining Technologies
Part III - 2007 - Factual Survey of PV Technologies

 

To make it exceptionally easy to find information every solar PV technology result followed an identical format of:

 

Introduction – Definition of the technology and simplified pros and cons
Market Players – Simple listing of who appears active in the technology
Cell & Panel Efficiency – The commonly accepted comparator
Description – Helping create a mental image of what it is
Raw Materials – Added where this is significant eg Gallium
Manufacturing Processes Used – Identification of the industry processes necessary
Up Stream Suppliers – Who supplies the critical process machines etc?
Industrial Capacity Behind the technology – Estimate of the factory capacity coming on stream
Future R&D directions – Listing the challenges for the specific technology

 

A key part of the research has been to find quantification for claims and explanations of things that are not commonplace.

 

This foundation has been preserved and up-dated with each subsequent edition of the ENF Future Technology Review


2nd Edition of the ENF Future PV Technology Review (Sept 2008)

 

The second edition extended the vision of the ENF technology review all the way down the entire value chain from the mining of key raw materials like indium and tellurium to the emerging solar products revolution. For the first time the entire solar PV industry was painted on the same canvas allowing the relationship between the different parts of the industry to be clearly seen.

 

The review of critical materials coincided with huge price hikes of some materials critical to second generation (thin film) solar PV technologies. In a very well researched deep dive a very insightful report was brought into the review. The review also made a start on the factory processes and key machines with a particular emphasis on deposition technologies. This led to the following scope and organisation of the review:

 

Part I – Setting the Scene
Part II – Review of Critical Materials
Part III – Factory Processes for PV Technologies
Part IV – Factual Survey of PV Technologies
Part V – Solar PV Cell Application Products


3rd Edition of the ENF Future PV Technology Review (April 2010)

 

The third edition has followed the same ambitious target of bringing right up to date the existing two layers of information and analysis… at the same time extending the scope of the review into new areas, including solar PV systems, TPV and quality/reliability of solar PV to create the following much expanded framework:

 

Part I – Economic Effects Shaping Technology Directions
Part II – Review of Critical Materials
Part III – Key Machines Used in the Factory Processes
Part IV – Factory Processes for PV Technologies

Part V – Factual Survey of PV Technologies

Part VI – Thermo PV Technology (TPV)
Part VII – Innovative Solar PV Films, Cells, Panels & Designs
Part VIII – Solar PV Generated AC Energy
Part IX – The Solar Powered Products Revolution
Part X – Quality and Reliability of Solar PV Systems
Part XI – Survey of Solar PV Research in University & Public/Private Research Laboratories
Part XII – Glossary of Terms Used in the Solar PV Industry

 
Together with some new deep dive research projects, including factory machines and processes we have also brought together a review of over 300 University Departments and public and private research laboratories active in solar PV research (excluding those of suppliers)  from over 40 countries.

 

The 3rd edition has embedded web links in various sections of the Technology Review to the appropriate parts of the ENF’s on-line industry databases …so that those with electronic versions of the Future Technology Review can move seamlessly from a description and analysis of a particular technology or material to the ENF industry database and from there to the websites of thousands of companies active in the various parts of the industry! In this way the future technology review has been turned into a unique information tool for the industry.

 

Throughout the entire 3 year rolling process we have maintained a very tight discipline of providing enough detail to allow a wide variety of managers in the industry at all levels and those outside who engage with the industry (investors, regulators etc) to understand what is going on and enough insight to be able to see the big picture and engage with experts.  It fills that vital knowledge space between the light media articles and the technical text books.

 

 
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